497 Main Road Glenorchy Tasmania 7010 Australia Phone: 61 3 62497868 (am) Phone: 61 3 62713000 (pm) Fax: 61 3 62730010 www.tececo.com

Printed in cyberspace on recycled electrons
Keeping you informed about TecEco sustainability projects. Issue 88, 3 December 2009

Game Theory, Politics, Global Warming & Carbon Taxes

The rush to try and pass the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme in Australia a few years ago revealed some interesting arguments in relation to global warming and exposed many of the political forces that exist in Australia and no doubt in the rest of the world. All the arguments were coloured by personal and often illogical views and highly polarised from denial to doomsday. What mattered and what didn't was of less importance than political point scoring. Confusion reigned about cause and effect and rhetoric and false argument abounded. In matters of science there is no room for quasi religious belief lead argument. Surely it is time a little common sense prevailed!

Game Theory

Its all about decisions and consequences. Our leaders need to be logical in the decisions they make in relation to global warming and analyse the situation without colour from religion, social justice, politics or anything else. They, like game players are presented with choices and consequences need to make rational decisions as scientists are supposed to as part of their training and method

Game theory is by no means new and insights into what was first enunciated by John Von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern in 1944 are to be found in the writings of Plato and Shakespeare and Actions of Cortez (burning his ships in sight of the Aztecs in South America.)[1].

Thinking about global warming using simple game theory analysis makes it much simpler to understand what we should and should not do in relation to the problem.

Add to the game solution matrix below the fact that reducing atmospheric CO2 is profitable using TecEco cement and Syncarb, Carbonsafe and Gaiaengineering technologies then there are no downsides and their decisions become much easier.

.

How TecEco Technology Changes a Simple Game Theory Solution

The Prisoners Dilemma and Global Warming Politics

The Prisoner's Dilemma is also important in decision theory and applies to our response to the threat of global warming.

Two prisoners given the option to confess or not confess their crime, will always both confess, despite the Pareto Efficient outcome of both not confessing. This is because their dominant strategy is to confess as it will always provide them with a greater payoff.

An excellent analysis of the dilemma in relation to global warming and the Kyoto process that is facing the world is available from the Wharton School of Economics[2].

If I am right the dilemma goes away if there are no negative consequences of taking action just as it does in the simple analysis I have written above.

The science tells us yes.

Global Warming

In 1859 John Tyndall showed that certain gases, including carbon dioxide block infra red radiation and subsequent confirming tests show this to be true. Given this fact in 1896 Savante Arrhenius predicted a general warming trend and we have observed this.

The problem is that the science is not that simple and although global warming is happening as a result of increasing CO2 & methane levels in the atmosphere there are also cooling influences at work such as Milankovitch Cycles and precession back to another ice age. This is because the earth is a complex homeostatic system with some factors act to cool the planet and others to warm it. Unfortunately politicians and the media tend to confuse the causes and effects.

All the following factors and possibly more must be taken into account.

The only safe and sensible position to take given all of the above influences on climate is to not mess with nature, not to create change and do something about reducing the amount of CO2 and methane we are putting into the atmosphere. By not messing with nature I mean it would be very silly to change anything, especially if we do not understand all the consequences even if we have an inkling that they may be disastrous. Isn't this what we all should have learned when we were kids?

Increasing atmospheric CO2is causing rising temperatures that will trigger methane releases. Continuing to increase the level of CO2 in the atmosphere will ultimately have consequences.

The probability of the science being wrong and CO2 not having a global warming affect is very low and for our leaders we will refer to it as the false option. They then have the choice of taking action to do something about it or not taking action. The truth or otherwise about whether CO2 is causing global warming has consequences as does the actions that can be taken to reduce those consequences and it is the job of our leaders to ponder these choices and consequences. If CO2 is adversely affecting global climate and they do not take action unthinkable economic, political, social and environmental catastrophe will occur, yet if false then they think they are going to unnecessarily spend money or levy taxes that will have recessive consequences. Putting it very simply and getting to the "powerful logic" or common sense of the matter, our leaders are faced with two possibilities and two choices. It is a dilemma they find hard to resolve and so they cloud the argument with religious dogmatic belief, false economics or spurious science.

Game theory teaches us that if there were no negative or recessive consequences of taking action the decision for our leaders becomes much easier because regardless to whether CO2 is causing global warming or even whether global warming is actually happening, it becomes the only logical course of action. Our leaders will take action to minimise undesirable consequences even with a low probability that the science is false. The TecEco solution is to recycle CO2 in the atmosphere using Syncarb is profitable and game theory tells us that it is not possible for them to make a wrong decision implementing it because there are no downsides. There is only one common sense approach and that is to adopt the technologies presented on this web site.

Unfortunately many of our political leaders do not know about our solution and perceive downsides to taking action about the increases in CO2 in the atmosphere and they don't seem to have a clue what to do.

I used to think

The whole Kyoto process is not working because there are downside consequences of decisions to act with blunt instruments like taxes. To avoid these our leaders need to try and find a way to minimise these downsides or better still remove them and the world would profit by their decisions. In the pursuit of profit they should think about how we could make money by stopping putting CO2 in the air and getting out the additional amount we have already put there. TecEco have demonstrated that the latter alternative is feasible in Syncarb and this is John Harrison's contribution to the world.

It may be a little unfair to say that just about all politicians in Australia have taken a position on global warming depending on the extent of their lack of understanding of it coloured by their lack of common sense, religious fervor or extent to which they want to use the issue to increase their power. There is sadly however some truth in this. There have been many others who have pointed out the deficiencies of carbon taxes, cap and trade systems and that the Australian Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (the CPRS) is flawed. I also used to think this. See our other political pages

In the following analysis it may help the reader to think of the techno process as the physical interface of the economy[3].

I now think

Unfortunately technical paradigms fall into the realm of what we call the market and politicians in a rather out of date Marshall, Adam Smith, Keynsian sort of way don't think it wise to get involved in markets. TecEco can bring the profit of the future (saving our atmosphere) into the realm of real here and now economics. The problem is that there are significant but not insurmountable supply chain barriers to economies of scale before it can enter here and now markets that consider only present costs and benefits and therein lies the impasse.

Taxes, whatever form they take are unpopular. Legal market forces alone have no leadership and therefore alone won't work. We need a technology plan as well to change the composition of the flow of materials and energy as we must do in order to change the underlying molecular flow and reduce net emissions. A technology plan is entirely missing from the world political stage and the right one is the key to making decisions without negative consequences for our poor leaders. We have the ominous responsibility of holding this key. Taxing emissions will help shift the techno process away from producing CO2. To be effective and last they have to be approved by the people politicians govern. I have some suggestions.

1. People are agonising over what sort of car to buy next time around. The cost of all electric cars is prohibitive. At a lower price are hybrid as they are a lot more efficient than cars than totally rely on petrol. A carbon tax would be more palatable to voters if it was coupled with much higher subsides on electric vehicles & hybrids.

2. People are also stressing about what to do about climate change. They are worried about the future. In our house may wife and I think "Happiness is pretty simple: someone to love, something to do, something to look forward to."[4].

Our politicians could not do better than to give something for people to look forward to back to them by subsidies for "something to do" much more positive about global warming such as our own Syncarb.

The need for reducing the CO2 in the air is urgent. Economies must substitute away from the burning of fossil fuels or develop technologies to use all the CO2 we produce or both. Learning to use CO2 as a basic input to our technoprocess is the easiest way to solve the problem because it is potentially profitable. Almost all that is living uses CO2 to build with so in the late 90's John Harrison thought we should do the same and set about developing all the required technologies. Now, over 15 years later those technologies have been developed in his mind and are, given any economies of scale, potentially very profitable.

A large number of politicians think that carbon taxes are an impost on their business friends and won't support them. The only sure way to remove this barrier to action is to find profit in implementing technologies and strategies to reduce without consequences and better still profit by reducing emissions and or removing CO2 from the air. Syncarb is potentially very profitable.

Our leaders are restricted by elections to considering only the short term. Profit is a short term concept. A benefit in the future is heavily discounted to present value reducing then eliminating profitability. The long term benefit of saving civilisation by preventing the development of an atmosphere evolving that is not suitable to our existance means little in terms of present value to business. It follows that the only solution that will work in the short term are palatable carbon taxes (see above) and profitably recycling massive amounts of carbon dioxide right now to make make a range of products as in Syncarb that are profitable in real here and now market places.

Game theory indicates that we must do something about global warming. If doing so were profitable then there are no downsides in the sort term decision horizon politicians and businesses understand.

References

[1] See "Game Theory" Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy at http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/game-theory/#trees

[2] Clemons, E. K. and H. Schimmelbusch (2007). "The Environmental Prisoners’ Dilemma Or We're All in This Together: Can I Trust You to Figure it Out?" at http://opim.wharton.upenn.edu/~clemons/blogs/prisonersblog.pdf

[3] See defintion at http://www.tececo.com/definition.techno-process.php)

[4] Attributed to Rita Mae Brown in "Hiss of Death"

Modernising Roman Methods of Placing No or Low Slump Concrete

In recent years the concrete industry have been making concrete a bit like pea or pumpkin soup and this does not necessarily make economic or engineering sense for many applications.

That is not to say that self compacting concretes do not have their uses. They do. It is just that for many applications such as house slabs and pavement there are better ways of placing concrete with much less risks and at lower cost. Let me explain.

If concrete is made with the consistency of pea soup then pumps are needed to move it. This is great for high rise construction or getting concrete around complex reinforcing but costs more money and often results in inferior concrete. Duff Abrams law makes it clear that less water means less cement for the same strength. Less water also concentrates alkalis resulting in better pozzolanic reactions if we are trying to replace cement with flyash or other pozzolans as we should be because less cement means less emissions. Less cement can be used because of more effective pozzolanic reactions and a lower water binder ratio. The industry promote the use of flyash but don't seem to have realised that they are fundamentally incompatible with pea soup concretes. It should be mandatory for their technologists to study Roman concretes.

In ancient times the Romans and I have no doubt the Chinese placed their early concretes relatively dry. According to David Moore "The Romans mixed their components (wet lime and volcanic ash) in a mortar box with very little water to give a nearly dry composition; carried it to the job site in baskets placing it over a previously prepared layer of rock pieces; and then proceeded to pound the mortar into the rock layer. Vitruvius, the noted Roman architect (circa 20 BC) mentioned this process in his formulas for concrete, plus the fact that special tamping tools were used to build a cistern wall. Close packing of the molecular structure by tamping reduced the need of excess water, which is a source of voids and weakness. But also close packing produces more bonding gel than might be normally expected."[1]

Roman methods are immitated by rollar compacted concretes for structures like dams but have not been developed for house slabs. My point here is that we should be developing the methodology of the ancients for slabs, pavement, curb and gutter and the like to make greener better concretes and it may even be cheaper to do so. I have done experiments to prove it to myself and am satisfied that it works so it is about time the industry took a more active role in developing dry placement methods and putting in place the required infrastructure and logistical support.

A Low Slump Concrete Placement Case Study

Around January 2003, Mike Burdon, a friend of mine who was interested in my work on magnesium cements and the strap method of prestressing invited me to do a slab in Tasmania.

What an opportunity! Somebody else offering to pay for the work. I decided to test three theories at once. The use of around 8% magnesia in the mix to improve durability and finishability, the strap method of reinforcing and low slump placement techniques.

Laying Low Slump Concrete.

The first layer has been laid, vibrated and smashed down with a lot of feet and a large 4" X 2" beam (this article suggests a vibrating compactor). The second layer is being placed ready for the same treatment. The reinforcing in this picture is high tensile steel strap

Mike Burdon Working on the Finish of a Dry Placed Slab in the Normal Way

Note that it would have been easier with a vibrating compactor

The Final Finish of our Test Low Slump Concrete

A bull float and hand trowel was used. For a larger slab a rotary helicopter finisher would have made the job easier

A Suggested Method

Following on from my experience with the above and other experiments the following method is suggested.

You will need to be able to buy or produce low or no slump concrete.

The first problem to overcome is that conventional concrete trucks are not very good at producing and delivering low or no slump concrete. Assuming these major problem can be overcome (we are working on a mixer with a delivery system to do this) then hire a vibrating compactor ("wacker smacker") and helicopter finisher ("chopper") for the day.

Prepare the edge boxing carfully making sure it is level if you are pouring a level slab as you will be using it to work your levels to..

Have on hand rakes and a very straight piece of timber to go the width to the edge boxing so you can make sure the concrete it flat. The vibrating compactor is useful for this job.

You will need a camera and video recorder for your wife or girlfriend to record you epic work and a bit of beer or other refreshments for hangers on and to keep you going.

As you are smart enough to at first take on only a small job, two or three people should be plenty. If you can't afford a vibrating compactor then put on a keg as lots of dancing feet do the same thing for laying concrete as they do for making wine.The analogy is to Roman slaves with their tamping rods..

Start by placing a 75 mm layer of the dry mix over plastic, rake or screed it flat. This is easy provided the mix is not too wet - then it gets difficult so we are suggesting a drier mix than in the case study.. Alternatively and in any event vibrate it down with the compactor.

Then put your reinforcing down. In the case study we used high tensile strap which is the subject matter of a patent John Harrison had. You can use mesh. Either way lay it. No bar chairs or other supports are required as the first layer will the steel. Place the next layer on top and carefully rake, screed of vibrate it dead flat as before but to the boxing edge (remember how you were asked to care about the boxing. It's too late now if you didn't). Continue to vibrate it down all over with the vibrating compactor or your little army of hangers on until what little moisture there is starts to come up. If it goes down too far anywhere add a bit from a barrow in reserve. Be careful as this is an art.

When flat and vibrated down and just enough moisture has come to the surface to finish the slab then use the helicopter finisher. This will be much earlier than normally as the set is a physical set due to lack of water more than a chemical cement set. A little sand or quarry dust, cement and water can be added at this point if necessary although we did not need to in our case study.

Then when titivated to your satisfaction - leave it alone, cover over and keep the dog off. It works for me so I see no reason why it should not work for you.

The Proof's in the Costing?

So how does the slab we have just made stack up in terms of cost to conventional methods?

In the following hypothetical analysis let's assume 5 cubic metres of 25 mpa concrete costing just a little less is required for the low or no slump slab and compare costs.

The above figures are a bit rubbery but are in the right ballpark. Low slump concrete should be cheaper because it should be possible to order the same strengh with a lot less cement and water and more fly ash and because a pump is not needed on the job. Because the mixture is dry placed it should be possible to finish it more or less straight away without having to wait for "first set" overcoming the issues builders have with the use of fly ash. Less people should be required on the job or everybody can go home earlier. (Most prefer the latter option!) The only extra cost is a vibrating compactor and these are commonly available as they are used for compacting gravel before laying pavers or for placing bitumen. The engineering payoff is much less cracking and other durability issues. The big pay off for the planet is that the whole process is much greener.

References

[1] Moore, D. (1995). "The Riddle of Ancient Roman Concrete." www.romanconcrete.com